#OnDeck: Cole Hamels and a going rate of a large joining ace

January 21, 2015 - photo frame

Pitchers and catchers will take partial in their initial central examination in Clearwater, Fla. 4 weeks from tomorrow.

If you’ve listened to Ruben Amaro Jr. within a final week, he expects Cole Hamels to be among those pitchers popping mitts with a giveaway and easy suit (spring training lingo alert!) 4 weeks from tomorrow during a Carpenter Complex.

While Amaro might really good be right – it’s easier to not make a franchise-altering trade than it is to make one – there is positively a complicated sip of posturing in any difference a Phillies ubiquitous manager uses per Hamels in a subsequent month (and beyond).

The Phillies coronet announced they were going into rebuilding mode 3 months ago. Last month, they began that routine in earnest, trade divided former MVP Jimmy Rollins and dual other useful pieces, Marlon Byrd and Antonio Bastardo, for 4 teenager joining pitchers.

Although Hamels is not any of those players – during 31, he’s most younger than Rollins and Byrd, and as a actor underneath control for 5 some-more seasons, he’s not a free-agent-to-be like Bastardo – a Phillies will positively lift a trigger on a trade if it creates clarity in their rebuilding plans.

They will not trade Hamels for a consequence of trade him, identical to a best offer before Opening Day. They will trade Hamels if a group meets their seeking price, that is high – and for good reason.

Hamels, who had a career-best 2.46 ERA in 30 starts this season, has a 3.00 ERA in a final 5 seasons, good adequate for fourth best in ball (among pitchers with during slightest 1,000 innings pitched over that time). The contingent of pitchers with a improved ERA given a commencement of 2010? Clayton Kershaw (2.26), Felix Hernandez (2.78) and Jered Weaver (2.99).

In a same time frame, usually 5 pitchers have pitched some-more innings: Fernandez, Kershaw, Justin Verlander, James Shields and David Price. None of those players has a World Series ring, either, nonetheless that’s apparently connected to a teams they play for, too, and not their possess performances – even nonetheless some of them have struggled in a postseason.

A name we won’t find on possibly of those aforementioned lists: Max Scherzer.

Scherzer only sealed a giveaway representative understanding with Washington for a reported 7-years and $210 million.

If that’s a going rate for a top-of-the-rotation starter, a group holding on Hamels for $94 million over a subsequent 4 seasons (or $114 for 5 if his 2019 choice is picked up) and during slightest 2 top-shelf prospects seems fair.

Prospects are heavily desired in a complicated game. But for a shorter joining for a improved pitcher, it would seem to be value a cost of alighting Hamels if you’re a group with World Series aspirations.

Max Scherzer, who is 5 months younger than Hamels, has left 82-35 with a 3.52 ERA in 161 games in a final 5 seasons. He has a 1.20 WHIP, a 3.54 K/BB ratio and a 118 ERA+ in 1,013 innings over that span.

Hamels numbers over a same time period: 60-49, 3.00 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 3.84 K/BB, 129 ERA+ in 1064 2/3 innings in 159 games.

If Hamels was a giveaway representative this winter, he’d be autocratic a sum agreement value north of $175 million, surely.

Jon Lester, dual weeks younger than Hamels, got $155 over 6 years from a Chicago Cubs. But, again, his numbers in a final 5 seasons aren’t utterly as good: 74-51, 3.54 ERA, 2.84 K/BB, 1.25 WHIP, 117 ERA+ over 1,038 innings in 161 games.

Free representative contracts are doled out for approaching destiny opening some-more than past performance, nonetheless given all 3 of those pitchers are of identical age, a statistical comparisons are warranted.

So if you’re in a Phillies front bureau and you’re offered one of a tip pitchers in ball to, contend a Padres or Cardinals, for $94 million over 4 years, we substantially should be seeking for a team’s tip dual prospects in return.

If it’s a Padres, and stream vital leaguers (Wil Myers) are off a table, we should be removing during slightest 2 of these 4 prospects for Hamels: catcher Austin Hedges, outfielder Hunter Renfroe, righthander Matt Wisler, outfielder Rymer Liriano.

If it’s St. Louis, you’re perfectionist 2 of these 4 during minimum: outfielder Stephen Piscotty, lefthander Marco Gonzales, righthander Carlos Martinez, outfielder Randal Grichuk.

If it’s Boston, 2 of these 3, if Mookie Betts is untouchable: catcher Blake Swihart, lefthander Henry Owens, righthander Matt Barnes.

If it’s a Cubs, a dim equine in a competition for Hamels even nonetheless they already landed Lester, Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler and Javier Baez might be untouchable, nonetheless shortstop Addison Russell, outfielder Albert Almora and righthander C.J. Edwards shouldn’t be.

Whether any of these teams meets a Phillies cost stays to be seen. But a cost isn’t outrageous, given a going rate for a proven large joining ace.

Would a Red Sox, a group with a apparent need for a No.1 starter, partial with, say, a package that includes Swihart, Barnes and infield awaiting Sean Coyle? Perhaps we’ll find out in a 4 weeks between now and a initial day of pitchers and catchers in Clearwater.

______

According to a Associated Press, a Phillies will acquire “a song icon” for a summer unison during Citizens Bank Park this summer. The proclamation of that poser low-pitched act is tomorrow.

I’m conference it’ll be Billy Joel. The Zac Brown Band could also play during CBP this summer, nonetheless they don’t tumble utterly underneath a “icon” pretension only yet.

The Phillies would adore to acquire Sir Paul McCartney, too. That would positively tumble underneath “icon” status.


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